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富爸爸系列書籍作者羅勃特清崎(Robert Kiyosaki)在他的有錢人的大陰謀網站裡，分享了一篇文章，分析最近極為熱門之黃金與白銀的投資，我將重點摘錄於下:
數年前清崎就建議投資人買進黃金與白銀，因為當時黃金與白銀都還相當便宜(與現在的價格比較)，然而在他于2011年5月16日發布的這篇，卻告誡投資人小心黃金與白銀，他提出3個主要理由，第一：很難去槓桿投資，不動產可以抵押貸款(融資)到8成的資金，股票也可以，但是黃金或白銀的融資管道不多，銀行大多沒有這項服務。
第二：沒有現金流量，不動產可以出租帶來租金收入，股票會配發股息，銀行存款也有利息，債券也會定時收到配息，但是黃金與白銀不會生出任何的現金流入。
第三：稅率很高，黃金白銀只有在出售後可以取得資本利得，在美國，這類的資本利得稅是28%，比股票的15%還高出甚多(當然持股期間低於一年的短期資本利得稅是30%，這是較高的稅率)，他最得意的不動產投資的資本利得稅與租金收入可以做到零稅率，當然關於稅的部分因為台灣投資人與美國哪邊的情況不同，所以應以自身的情況做考量。如果是台灣人到美國證券市場去購買黃金ETF(代號：IAU或GLD)或是白銀ETF(代號：SLV)，是沒有資本利得稅的問題(以2011年的稅務規定而言)。
清崎倒也不認為會有黃金與白銀的價格泡沫，綜觀而論，黃金的價格波動較白銀小很多，也有各國央行的黃金儲備做壓艙物，降低其價格波動，白銀的供需目前看起來也沒有供需失衡，因此白銀價格應不致於再產生飆漲的情況，這減少了價格泡沫的可能性。
提供世界白銀協會的一段問答如下：
問: 不少人都在談論白銀短缺的問題。白銀ETF如何才可以持續增長？
答: 首先，雖然傳聞不絕，但事實上，全球白銀未見短缺。
全球主要白銀生產國包括墨西哥、秘魯、中國、澳大利亞和智利。回顧2010年，在墨西哥和阿根廷新項目的帶動下，白銀礦產量上升2.5%至7.36億安士，而來開採存貨的白銀供應也增至1.43億安士，其中源自工業和珠寶的回收碎銀量較2009年上升了14%。
其次，白銀近50%的需求主要來自於工業。至於投資用途的白銀（包括由ETF持有的白銀），約占白銀總需求的17%。
在2011年第一季度，ETF持有的白銀總額為6.12億安士，少於2010年的全年產量。雖然白銀需求增加，但各項證據都顯示其供應仍足以應付需求增長。
因此，基於白銀ETF增長而觸發供應短缺的憂慮似乎並不成立。
資料來源：世界白銀協會，截至2010年12月31日
Online Exclusive Update - #87
May 16, 2011Why Gold and Silver Aren’t Good Investments
For years, I’ve advised people to buy gold and silver, especially up to the year 2010. As you may know, gold was approximately $275 an ounce in 2000, and by 2010, gold was over $1,300 an ounce. Silver has been the better of the two precious metals, starting at below $3.50 an ounce a few years ago and reaching a high of approximately $40 this year.
Yet, gold and silver aren’t the best investments for the following reasons.
Difficult to leverage
With real estate, my bankers will loan me 70 to 80 percent of the purchase price. Even though gold and silver has gone up, few bankers will lend you money to invest in gold and silver.
A banker may lend you money for gold and silver you have in your possession, pledging it as collateral against your loan, but most will balk at the idea of borrowing money to speculate in gold and silver.
No cash flow
Gold and silver don’t produce cash flow…for most people. If you’re sophisticated, there are ways to have your gold and silver produce cash flow, but if you know how to do that, you don’t need gold and silver.
Taxes are high
As you know, there are two types of income from investments: capital gains and cash flow. Most novices invest for capital gains. They hope and pray their investment goes up in price. For example, they hope their stocks go up in price or their home goes up in value.
Cash flow investors invest for income on the asset. For example, they invest for cash flow from their real estate or business, dividends from their stocks, or interest from their savings or bonds.
Taxes for real estate investments are the best. For example, an investor can pay zero in taxes for capital gains and for cash flow. Taxes on capital gains for stocks are 15 percent for long-term gains and 30 percent for short-term gains (investments held for less than a year). This is one reason I prefer real estate instead stocks. I’d rather not pay taxes to the government.
The worst taxes are on 401k plans and savings. The income from these investment entities are taxed at the highest tax rate, ordinary income, the same tax rate for employees.
Taxes for capital gains on silver and gold are 28 percent, which is higher than 15 percent on stocks and zero percent for real estate.
Once again, the reasons why silver and gold aren’t the best investments are:
1. Difficult to leverage
2. No cash flow
3. Taxes are high
On the flip side, gold and silver is an easy investment, especially when the Fed is printing trillions of dollars.
But, if the Fed stops printing trillions of dollars, gold and silver may become the next price bubble to crash…but I doubt that will happen.
If the Fed stops printing money, there will be a giant crash causing a tsunami of pain and destruction. Cash will become king…and so will a gun.
I still believe your best investment is taking courses and investing in your financial education. Regardless if we crash or go into hyperinflation, those with a sound financial education will be better off than those who are counting on the government to solve this financial crisis.
Thank you for supporting COR.
Robert Kiyosaki
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