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本文譯自羅伯特清崎部落格http://www.conspiracyoftherich.com/ReadTheBook.aspx
許多人都知道我喜愛黃金，特別喜愛的是白銀。 如果你有追蹤黃金和白銀，你可能已經注意到黃金和白銀都在前不久大跌。你可能會問：到底發生什麼事了?我的回答是：我不知道!這已經是近幾個星期以來最令人困惑的問題。沒有任何事情是有意義的，當沒有事情是有意義時，最好的方式是退一步，然後看看市場接下來會如何發展。
貨幣戰爭
全世界都陷入貨幣戰爭。舉例來說，日本讓日圓貶值。這代表日元的購買力會愈來愈少，通膨將會上升。全世界必須跟循日本的帶頭，在貨幣貶值方面。為什麼呢? 因為當日本讓日圓貶值，日本的產品變得較便宜，就會增加日本商品的出口。當日本的出口增加，就業人口就會上升，雖然這會導致日本人薪資的購買力下降。 當日圓貶值，日本的貿易夥伴以及非貿易夥伴，都必須讓他們本國的貨幣貶值。對於黃金跟白銀來說，這將會是一個好消息，但實際情形卻不是。這就是為什麼我感到困惑的地方。
當日圓貶值，日本股市隨即上漲。股市上漲是因為日本人需要去保護他們的購買力，因此儲蓄的資金衝進了股市。在美國，美股漂浮在 “Bernanke’s Bubble(柏南克的泡沫)”--柏南克推行的QE(貨幣寬鬆政策)。這種情況會持續多久呢? 我不知道。美國的不動產市場再次火熱起來。歐巴馬總統宣布他想要啟動 “Sub-prime II次級房貸第二輪”也就是讓次級抵押貸款人能夠更容易借到錢來買房。這簡直是瘋了!我的一些真正的黃金擁護者朋友們，他們相信黃金價格是被操縱而下跌的。一些人相信聯準會(Fed)積極地操縱黃金的價格，聯準會想要金價保持在低點，如此美元、股市以及不動產就會堅挺。
聯準會真的有操縱金價嗎？我不知道。當市場困惑時，謠言總是充斥整個市場 。
此時此刻，所有我聽到的都是謠言，我不喜歡根據謠言來做決定。就個人而言，我很高興黃金跟白銀的價格下跌。我視這種下跌為買進的機會。然而，我不能說我將於何時買進。所以我僅僅是坐在一旁，看著全世界的貨幣戰爭繼續進行著。我將會進入股市嗎?我不會。基於許多原因，我不喜歡股票。我已經讓3家公司透過IPOs( initial public offerings)來公開發行上市，在公開發行時我看到一些不為人知的事情，而我不喜歡我所看到的這些事情。如同一句古諺說的： “如果你看到香腸是如何被製造出來的，你將不會吃它。”
然而這表示你不應該進入股票市場嗎？不，那是你的決定。數百萬人已經在股市 賺進數百萬，你可能也會是其中之一。同時也有數百萬人損失數兆元 ，我不想要你或是我成為其中之一。
華倫巴菲特說過： “買入股票最愚蠢的理由是因為股市正在上漲”這句話適用在任何事物上面，包括黃金、白銀、槍以及不動產。
我正在做的是看著黃金跟白銀的價格，準備再次買進。如你所知，我不是一個交易員，我不是買進然後再賣出(賺價差)。我是買入然後永久持有。自從我喜愛黃金跟白銀以來，每當他們價格下跌時，我就很興奮，因為我可以用較低的價格買入更多。如你所知，黃金跟白銀被當作真實的錢已經有千年以上的歷史了，我相當的確定黃金會比美元活的還要更久。在此期間，Ken McElroy和我正專注在德州更多的公寓房。房價很低，利率也很低，同時德州的人口正在增長，他是一個很好的市場。總結來說，堅持你所知道的(事物)。如果你什麼事都不知道，這可能是一個好的時機來開始學習，總比賭博來的好。 感謝你閱讀這個部落格，Robert Kiyosaki
ROBERT’S LESSON #2: WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH GOLD?
As many of you know, I love gold and especially silver. If you have been following gold and silver, you have noticed that gold and silver have been falling in price. You may have asked, “What is going on?” My answer is, “I don’t know.” This has been a most confusing few weeks. Nothing makes much sense and when things do not make much sense, it is best to step back and take a longer look at markets.
CURRENCY WARS
The world is now in a currency war. For example, Japan has been devaluing the yen. This means the yen buys less and less and inflation should go up. The world must follow Japan’s lead in currency devaluation. Why? Because when Japan devalues the yen, it means Japan’s products become cheaper and Japan exports more. When Japan exports more, employment goes up in Japan, even though Japanese workers wages purchase less and less.
When Japan devalues the yen, Japan’s trading partners, and who isn’t a trading partner of Japan, must also devalue their currency. This should be good news for gold and silver, but it isn’t. This is why I am confused.
When the Japanese yen drops in value, their stock market goes up. The stock market goes up because the Japanese need to protect the purchasing power of their money and savings rush into the stock market.
In the US, the US stock market is floating on “Bernanke’s Bubble” of easy money. How long will this last, I do not know.
The real estate market in the US is on fire again. President Obama announced he wants to start “Sub-prime II” making it easier for subprime borrowers to buy homes again. This is nuts.
My friends who are true gold bugs believe gold is being manipulated down. Some believe the Fed is actively manipulating gold’s price, the Fed wanting the price of gold to stay low so the dollar, stock market, and real estate appear strong.
Is the Fed manipulating the price of gold? I do not know. Rumors always abound when markets are confusing.
Right now, all I hear are rumors and I do not like to make decisions based upon rumors.
Personally, I am happy the price of gold and silver are going down. I see the price drop in gold and silver as buying opportunities. Yet, when I will start buying, I cannot say. So I just sit on the side and watch theCurrency War of the Worlds continue on.
Will I jump into the stock market? I will not. I do not care for stocks, for many reasons. As a person who has taken three companies public via IPOs, initial public offerings, I have an idea of what goes on behind the scenes and I do not like what I saw. As the old saying goes, “If you saw sausage being made, you would not eat it.”
Does this mean you should not get into the stock market? No, that is your decision. Millions have made millions in the stock market and you might be one of them. Millions have also lost trillions in the stock market. I do not want you or me to be one of them.
As Warren Buffet says, “The dumbest reason to buy a stock is because it is going up.” That is true for anything, gold, silver, guns, and real estate included.
What I am doing is watching the prices of gold and silver, getting ready to buy again. As you know, I am not a trader. I do not buy to sell. I buy to hold forever. Since I love gold and silver, I am excited about it going down in price so I can buy more at lower prices. As you know, gold and silver have been real money for thousands of years and I am quite certain gold will be around a lot longer than the US dollar.
In the mean time, Ken McElroy and I are looking at more apartment houses in Texas. Prices are low, interest rates are low, and the population of Texas is growing. It is a great market.
In summary, stick to what you know. If you do not know anything, this might be a good time to start learning rather than gambling.
Thank you for reading this blog,
Robert Kiyosaki
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